First-quarter U.S. pork production is expected to be 5.92 billion pounds, 9.6 percent above the same period last year, according to USDA's March Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook Report. Total commercial pork production this year is expected to be 23.1 billion pounds, 5.4 percent above 2007.
First-quarter live-hog prices are expected to be $40 to $41 per hundredweight, 12 percent below the same period a year ago. As a result, many pork producers are operating at losses near $30 per hog.
Meanwhile, gains in cold storage may signal a slowdown in pork demand. February's beginning stocks of frozen pork grew significantly beyond recent levels. Frozen pork levels on Jan. 31, were 563.6 million pounds, 16 percent above year-earlier levels. Larger-than-expected increases suggest that pork products are entering the supply chain faster than they are flowing through to domestic and foreign consumers.
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