Tuesday, September 30, 2008

U.S. hog supply should start to tighten into 2009

By Janie Gabbett on 9/29/2008 of MeatingPlace.com

USDA's quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated U.S. hog producers continue to reduce their breeding herds — which could mean moderation in hog slaughter by December and into 2009 — but between now and then, slaughter could tax capacity, according to livestock analysts.

USDA reported Friday that sow farrowings were down 2 percent in the June-August period, representing "a reasonable yet not robust liquidation rate for the U.S. sow herd," according to livestock analysts Steve Meyer and Len Steiner in the CME Group's Daily Livestock Report. That, along with continued declines in Canadian market hog imports, should put December slaughter below last year's very large volumes.

They noted, however, that an increase in hogs weighing 120-179 lbs on Sept. 1 (at 106 percent of a year ago) means higher year-on-year slaughter will continue through late November, as those hogs go to market.

This large number could raise concerns that hog supplies could exceed U.S. slaughter capacity at some point this fall, warned Stephens Inc. in a note to investors.

Wachovia livestock analyst Jonathan Feeney saw USDA's report as positive for hog prices next year.

In a note to investors, he wrote that the numbers in the report "generally point to better hog fundamentals in 2009." Current hog and corn prices indicated producers are losing about $5.00 per hundredweight, but Feeney projected they could be earning about $5.00 per hundredweight by April, 2009.

Philippines: Imposition of Pork Price Ceiling Urged

THE PHILIPPINES - Hog farmers are pressing the government to impose a pork price ceiling in the wet market as the trader-manipulated price is devastating the industry and pork consumption is being further dampened.

National Federation of Hog Farmers Inc. (NFHFI) Albert Lim told reporters that the Department of Agriculture (DA) and the Department of Trade and Industry should cause the imposition of a pork price ceiling of P140 to P150 per kilo in the wet market.

This should put a cap on the price that has hovered around P170 to P180 in the market as manipulated by traders. This is even if price of pork at farm gate is now at a very low P85 per kilo or less.

Lim said farmers are also suffering from a huge inventory of oversized hogs weighing more than 100 kilos while what is normally acceptable in the market are those weighing 70 to 80 kilos. This is because of the big importation of pork meat from Canada.

"We have lots of oversized pork. This is the only time that that has happened to us," he said.

In a related concern, the Philippine Association of Meat Processors Inc. (PAMPI) is protesting DA’s suspension on the issuance of veterinary quarantine certificate (VQC) on PAMPI’s importation of meat products.

This is effectively a ban on the importation of ingredients being used by meat processors for producing canned corned beef or canned ham.

PAMPI asked DA Sec. Arthur C. Yap in a letter to "immediately lift the suspension of VQC processing for pork import applications for manufacturing-grade parts of pork in the soonest possible time so we can catch up on our inventory build-up of processed meats intended for the holiday season."

DA issued the suspension of release of VQC on pork importation last September 16th.

Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI) Director David Catbagan said BAI will be reviewing this directive.

PAMPI said in a statement that Rep. Nick Briones who is associated with livestock cooperative Limcoma has been pressing DA to issue such suspension.

"Briones blamed the presence of imported pork in the wet markets for a large inventory of 50,000 to 60,000 oversized hogs amid a lack of market demand," said PAMPI.

Moreover, PAMPI officials said DA has allowed a bulk of imported meat from Canada to be sold in the wet market even if it is the duty of DA to curb distribution of these meat in the wet market.

"Only meat processors should be allowed to import this meat, and this imported pork should not be sold in the market," said a PAMPI official.

PAMPI said its importation of manufacturing grade pork has not been unreasonably high compared to 2007 volume except for bellies "which has become scarce in local supply, forcing us to depend on imported sources to support the increased demand of bacons."

BAI data showed that pork imports reached 83,454 metric tons as of September 13th from 79,381 MT in the entire 2007.

ThePigSite News Desk

Meat Processors Protest Ban on Pork Imports

THE PHILIPPINES - The country’s largest group of meat processors has protested over a ban imposed by the Department of Agriculture (DA) on pork importation, warning that this could affect the supply of meat products in the coming holiday season.

In a statement on Friday, the Philippine Association of Meat Processors Inc. (PAMPI) said that it had sent a letter to Secretary Arthur Yap on September 23, requesting for the immediate lifting of the suspension of import applications for pork manufacturing-grade parts.

BusinessWorld reports that last September 16th, Mr. Yap instructed the the Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI) to suspend the issuance of (veterinary quarantine clearance) VCQ for pork import applications, amid pressures from Congressman Nicanor Brioners and an influential group of hog raisers.

Mr. Briones blamed the presence of imported pork in the wet markets for a large inventory of 50,000 to 60,000 oversized hogs, amid a lack of market demand.

"It is disappointing to note that the DA would unilaterally and immediately react to this allegation without a benefit of consultation on confrontation with importers and processors who are users of imported pork parts," PAMPI said.

The meat processors said the suspension of pork importation took effect without the conduct of a dialogue between PAMPI members and the hog raisers, or the DA and BAI, or among the three parties.

"It is fearful to think that the DA would actually decide to sacrifice the meat processing industry so that you could submit to the pressures that Congressman Briones and the hog raisers have applied upon your department," PAMPI said in their letter to Mr. Yap.

PAMPI claimed that the suspension of VCQ for pork importation has affected the delivery of manufacturing-grade parts needed by the meat processing industry, including pork bellies, fats, offals, and skin/rind.

Data from the BAI that show as of September 13th, pork imports reached 83,454 metric tons, compared to the 12-month importation of 79,381 MT in 2007.

PAMPI said that while the pork import volume this year appeared quite high, this cannot be traced to the importation of manufacturing-grade pork parts.

"Our importation of manufacturing grade pork parts are not unreasonably high compared to 2007 volumes, except for bellies which has become scarce in local supply, forcing us to depend on imported sources to support the increased demand of bacons," PAMPI said.

As of August 30, imports of pork bellies reached 6,503,480 kilos this year, against 3,343,918 kilos in August 2007.

PAMPI said what contributed to the surge in pork importation this year was the increase in the shipments of "cuts".

"We do not believe that the meat processors would be the importers of this category of pork parts," PAMPI said, noting that importation of cuts reached 23,761,236 kilos as of August 2008, against 4,963,011 kilos in August 2007.

"A sweeping control on, or restriction, of all pork imports will be an unfair stance for the meat processors and would challenge the enterprise system in a free economy. The distortion in market behavior of pork prices may have been introduced by the entry of huge volumes of pork cuts," PAMPI said.

PAMPI asked the government to reduce, if not suspend the importation of pork cuts, while allowing the uninterrupted sourcing of manufacturing grade parts for bellies, deboned pork parts, fats, offals, rind/skin, which are substantial raw materials for processed meat products that utilize pork-based formulations.

ThePigSite News Desk

Pork Commentary: Hog Prices Stay Strong

CANADA - This week's North American Pork Commentary from Jim Long.



Last week, despite weekly U.S. marketings of 2.335 million, the Iowa-Minnesota lean hog price last Friday averaged 69.72. A year ago with weekly marketings about 100,000 fewer, the Iowa-Minnesota price was just over 60¢ lean. More hogs … stronger prices. Just as significantly, the U.S.D.A. pork cut-out last Thursday was 76.95; a year ago it was around 67¢. Thank goodness for export demand.

USDA Projects Decrease in U.S. Per Capita Pork Consumption

USDA released it’s latest pork estimates on September 12.

USDA projects that pork output is to be 1.533 billion pounds larger than the previous year, but all of the increase will be absorbed by export markets with U.S. pork exports in 2008 expected to be up 2.3 million pounds or 73%. Per capita pork consumption this year is currently expected to be 5.7% lower than a year ago and is currently forecast to decline another 1.3% in 2009.

So what we have is USDA projecting a 7% decline in per capita pork consumption over two years. Not because of lack of supply as we are going to produce 1.533 billion more pounds of pork in 2008. An approximate 3.5 lb per capita (7%) consumption drop is about one billion lbs of pork; the equivalent of 2 weeks slaughter that will have to find export market homes.

We remember Larry Pope, CEO of Smithfield Foods, speaking at the Lake of the Ozarks conference three years ago. Obviously we are paraphrasing, but the just of his statement: “Pork exports are like heroin, we become dependent. Unfortunately, there is a myriad of risks to global trade.” High dependence on exports increase price risk and volatility.

A couple of weeks ago we wrote about the ineffectiveness of the Other White Meat marketing program. We pointed out there has been one billion dollars invested in check off by pork producers over the last two decades. Pork consumption and market share has decreased every year. On the flip side, global pork consumption is increasing. We reiterate our opinion that the Other White Meat program is an unmitigated failure. A billion dollars spent and continual pork consumption decreases. The USDA indication of a 7% decline in per capita pork consumption in 2008-2009 only magnifies the situation.

We believe in check off. We do not believe in hiding from the facts. The National Pork Board is proving itself delusionary beyond comprehension when it’s continually spinning that the Other White Meat program is working. Unfortunately, the Pork Board has its head in the sand (or maybe somewhere else). A billion dollars of our money gone with negative results. Heads should roll.

We are in tough times. Most producers have been losing $20 per head for a year. Every dollar we spend must maximize value. Many of us have our life’s savings invested in the pork industry. We are not bystanders. We want and need results. We must have results from our check off dollars beyond buying steak dinners for Pork Board Directors. U.S. pork consumption is decreasing; this is a crisis that affects the long term viability of our investments in our businesses.

Other Observations

  • If you want to solve the world oil supply issue, put farmers in charge. In two years we would have over-production and prices would collapse. Nature of the beast. 

  • The collapse of Lehman Brothers, AIG and the myriad of bailout programs just add to the business difficulty we all face. We already had a hog price, energy and feed volatility, now add the concern for credit availability. It’s not a stable time.

  • Sow price is sure holding up with heavy sows bringing over $300 a piece. This despite sow slaughter over 70,000 a week. A heck of a lot better than in June when heavy sows hovered around $100.

  • Sow price is sure holding up with heavy sows bringing over $300 a piece. This despite sow slaughter over 70,000 a week. A heck of a lot better than in June when heavy sows hovered around $100.

  • We continue to be optimistic that supply levels in 2009 will be such to push cash prices above breakeven. We still see June 2009 over $1.00 lean.

  • Why? We see domestic and global cutbacks to cattle (last week U.S. cattle on feed – 3%), poultry (egg and chick sets – 3%+), and as we all know, there will be fewer hogs in 2009. Less total meat is very bullish for prices. 2009 will see stronger hog prices. No doubt.

Monday, September 1, 2008

Russia names banned U.S. chicken plants, warns 22 Tyson plants

Russian will begin its ban of imports from 19 U.S. poultry plants on Sept. 1, Russia's animal and plant health regulatory agency Rosselkhoznadzor announced Friday, according to media reports.

Rosselkhoznadzor identified the banned plants by supplier number. According to a list of those numbers published by Reuters, the ban applies to the following plants:

Butterball, LLC in Carthage, Mo.
Case Farms of North Carolina in Dudley, N.C.
Choctaw Maid Farms in Forest, Miss.
Farbest Foods in Huntingburg, Ind.
House of Raeford Farms in Raeford, N.C.
Jennie-O Turkey Store in Barron, Wis.
Mountainaire Farms in Selbyville, Del.
Mountainaire Farms of Delaware in Millsboro, Del.
New Oxford Foods in New Oxford, Pa.
Peco Foods in Bay Springs, Miss.
Peco Foods in Sebastopol, Miss.
Peterson Farms in Decatur, Ark.
Sanderson Farms in Hazlehurst, Miss.
Sanderson Farms in Collins, Miss.
Simmons Foods in Soutwest City, Mo.
Simmons Foods in Siloam Springs, Ark.
Tyson Foods in Carthage, Miss.
Tyson Foods in Clarkesville, Ark.
Wayne Farms in Laurel, Miss.

"Joint Russian-U.S. inspections of U.S. poultry processing plants at the end of July and the beginning of August showed a number of inspected plants do not fully observe the agreed standards," Rosselkhoznadzor said in a statement. "The inspection showed that many plants have not taken steps to eliminate faults discovered by previous inspections."

22 Tyson plants warned

Rosselkhoznadzor said its inspectors had not been allowed to visit some poultry farms and had not received results of a probe into a possible excess of arsenic in some U.S. poultry supplied to Russia, according to Reuters. Rosselkhoznadzor said it wanted these results within one month.

"A timely reception of this information by Rosselkhoznadzor will prevent the imposition of restrictions on poultry imports to Russia for 22 plants belonging to Tyson Foods, four plants of Peco Foods and three plants of the Equity Group," the agency said, referring to the 29 plants Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on Thursday would receive warnings. (See Putin says Russia will ban imports from 19 U.S. chicken plants on Meatingplace.com, August 29, 2008.)

Russia banning imports from 19 US chicken plants

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has announced that imports from 19 US chicken plants will be banned.

It has been reported that the chicken plants will no longer be allowed to export chicken products to Russia because they ignored warnings from Russian inspectors who examined poultry companies in 2007.
It was also reported that another 29 US plants would receive warnings.

Series of poultry products in Maple Leaf recall

The list of products that was recalled from the Canadian company Maple Leaf Foods this week contains several poultry products, marketed in different brands.

The Canadian food processor recalled all its products made at the Toronto plant, manufactured from January 2008, since a link has been determined between a strain of Listeria bacteria found at one of Maple Leaf's plants outside of Toronto. The strain caused illness and at least 15 people to lose their lives, after which the plant itself was temporarily closed down.
The product recall list includes chicken and turkey products under the Maple Leaf brand, but also under various other brand names, like Artisan Collection, Bittners/Schneiders, Compliments, Deli Gourmet, Generic, McDonald's and Schneiders. A full list of recalled products can be found here.

Responsibility
The Canadian food processor took full responsibility for the outbreak, which is thought to have been caused by a shipment of bad ready-to-eat meat products. Maple Leaf says it has no evidence that the bacteria could have spread beyond two initial lines that were identified as being linked to affected product.

Recall
The recall began on 17 August when the company announced it was recalling beef products due to Listeria contamination. The recall was expanded on 20 August to various other processed meat products.
Two days later, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency and Public Health Agency of Canada concluded that the strain of Listeria found in the first two beef products matched the strain involved in two cases of food-borne illness. As a result, Maple Leaf Foods expanded the recall once more, now including all products produced at the plant.

Sympathy
Maple Leaf sent out press releases recently and offered 'deep and sincere sympathy to those who are ill, or who have lost loved ones, on behalf of the 23,000 people of Maple Leaf Foods who live a culture of food safety'.
It is expected that the number of confirmed and suspected cases will continue to increase over the next several weeks. It is estimated that the recall will cost the approx. CAN$20 mln (US$19 mln), which will be primarily incurred for the reimbursement for returned products. Financial losses however are thought to turn out larger, since the company has become the target of a class action lawsuit.