Pork exports probably no picnic in June and beyond: USDA

By Rita Jane Gabbett on 7/20/2009
MeatingPlace.com

Pork exports in May, at about 307 million pounds, were 36 percent below May 2008 exports, with Japan importing 15 percent less, Mexico importing 3 percent less and Russia importing 1 percent less than a year ago, according to USDA.

But it's likely that May exports — particularly to Mexico and Russia — did not register the full negative impacts of H1N1-related slowdowns in demand for U.S. pork, given that the disease did not come to the world's attention until late April, according to USDA's monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report.

"Normal lags in exporting U.S. pork products ordered before consumers became aware of the disease likely prevented the full demand effects of the disease from being felt until well beyond May," USDA warned.

Meanwhile, U.S. packers and swine finishers imported 36 percent fewer live swine from Canada in May than a year ago. "In general, country-of-origin labeling and an ongoing industry contraction in Canada are the key factors limiting U.S. live swine imports," the report stated.

Production and prices

USDA forecast lower pork production and lower prices for the balance of this year. Third-quarter commercial production is estimated at 5.47 billion pounds, almost 3 percent below a year ago, while fourth-quarter production is expected to be 6 billion pounds, or almost 2 percent below last year.

USDA forecasted third-quarter hog prices will average between $44 and $46 per hundredweight, down about 21 percent from a year ago. Fourth-quarter prices are expected to average between $39 and $41 per hundredweight, nearly 5 percent below last year. In 2010, prices are expected to average between $46 and $50 per hundredweight, almost 13 percent above 2009 prices.