USDA lowers meat production, export, price forecasts

USDA reduced its total U.S. meat production forecasts for 2008 and 2009 from last month, reflecting lower forecasts for all meats in 2008 and lower forecasts for beef and poultry more than offsetting predicted production gains in pork in 2009, according to the agency's monthly World Agriculture Supply and Demand report.

Beef

U.S. beef production for 2008 was reduced to 26.589 billion pounds from 26.699 a month ago. USDA predicts cattle placements for the remainder of 2008 will decrease, resulting in reduced beef production during the first half of 2009.

The agency barely changed its beef export forecasts from last month, reflecting actual third-quarter data. Beef exports in 2008 were raised ever so slightly to 1.860 billion pounds from 1.841 billion pounds forecast in November. USDA maintained its 2009 forecast for beef exports at 1.900 billion pounds. International demand is expected to remain weak amid economic uncertainty, and a stronger U.S. dollar may further dampen sales, the agency said.

USDA lowered its average Choice steer price (Nebraska, Direct, 1,000-1,300 pounds) for 2008 to $92.59 per hundredweight from $93.22 projected in November. For 2009, the agency lowered its average price range forecast to $92 to $99 from $93 to $100 last month.

Pork

U.S. pork production for 2008 was reduced somewhat to 23.419 billion pounds from 23.452 billion pounds projected last month. USDA raised its pork production forecast for 2009, saying lower feed costs result in slightly heavier weights.

Pork export forecasts are reduced for 2008 and 2009 for the same factors affecting beef exports. USDA lowered its 2008 export forecast to 4.769 billion pounds from 5.068 billion pounds last month. For 2009, the agency reduced its forecast to 4.100 billion pounds from 4.500 billion pounds predicted in November.

USDA dropped its average barrows and gilts (live equivalent 51-52 percent lean) price estimate for 2008 to $47.73 per hundredweight from $47.86 per hundredweight projected last month. For 2009, the agency maintained its predicted range of $48 to $52.