By Janie Gabbett on 5/30/2008 for Meatingplace.com
The earthquake that rocked China on May 12 could decrease pork production by up to 4 percent, slightly boost national pork prices and support continued pork imports over the next six to eight months, according to USDA's agricultural office in Beijing.
While the epicenter of the earthquake in China's Sichuan Province was not a main swine and pork production area, some large production areas nearby were impacted with an estimated four million to five million hogs either killed by the earthquake or slaughtered due to lack of feed or water supplies, USDA analysts in Beijing said in a report. Longer-term impact will depend on how quickly water, energy and transportation services can be restored.
"China's 2008 pork supply is expected to remain very tight as production recovers slowly," the analysts wrote.
Pork prices in China are expected to decline slightly in the near term as swine are liquidated for lack of feed or water, but are then expected to rise. Pork prices in April were already up 68 percent from a year ago on tight supplies from decreased production due to disease and other factors.
Pork imports are expected to remain strong, with the United States projected to remain the largest supplier to China for the remainder of 2008.
China imported $121.6 million worth of pork in the January-March 2008 period, up from $7.5 million in the same period a year ago. Pork variety meat imports were valued at $142.6 million, up from $74.2 million in the same period a year ago. The report said 68 percent of China's pork imports and 24 percent of pork variety meat imports came from the United States, not including U.S. exports to Hong Kong for re-export to China.
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