Friday, August 29, 2008

Putin says Russia will ban imports from 19 U.S. chicken plants

By Janie Gabbett on 8/29/2008
of MeatingPlace.com

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on Thursday Russia will ban imports from 19 U.S. chicken plants, which he did not name, according to media reports.

Putin told CNN that 19 U.S. chicken plants will be barred from exporting to Russian because they ignored warnings from Russian inspectors who examined poultry companies last year and that another 29 U.S. plants would receive warnings.

Russia's agriculture minister on Wednesday was quoted as saying that the country would slash imports of pork and poultry dramatically, a message that sent stocks of meat processing companies down. (See Russia considers cuts on poultry, pork import quotas on Meatingplace.com, August 28, 2008.)

Both the U.S. poultry and pork industries have been aided by strong exports to a number of markets, including Russia, this year.

Putin said the move had nothing to do with tension over the recent war in Georgia, but U.S. industry observers may see it differently.

"There has been an escalation of rhetoric from Russia regarding US chicken and pork exports at least in part reflecting Russia's retaliation for the US's response to the conflict between Russia and Georgia," BMO Capital Markets Analyst Kenneth Zaslow wrote in a note to investors after the agricultural minister's warning about cutting quotas.

Zaslow expects U.S. pork and poultry exports to Russia to decline over the next six months, but sees the situation as temporary, since Russia does not yet have the production capacity to replace the import volumes.

Canadian pig numbers continue to fall

The latest Canadian livestock census, published in August, shows a continuing decline in the pork industry, with the number of farms with pigs falling 19% between July 2007 and the same month in 2008.


Biggest losers were the western provinces of Saskatchewan, with a 30% reduction and Alberta with 24%. There were 11.6% fewer pigs in total, although the number of breeding pigs fell by just 4.6%.

The figures also reflect an increasing trend towards shipping weaned pigs or feeder pigs to the USA, with finishing pigs over 60 kg down by 15%. However, following a record first quarter for live exports, when an estimated 2.9 million pigs moved to the USA, the second quarter numbers were put at 2.2 million by Statistics Canada.

Incentive
The drop in breeding pig numbers was lower than expected, bearing in mind the financial incentive to reduce the national herd size provided by the federal Cull Breeding Swine programme.

Producers who depopulate breeding barns and agree to leave them empty for three years qualify for payments of CAN$225 per culled animal.

After the programme was launched in April, uptake was good and by July had passed 100,000 but, since then, interest seems to have been lower. Martin Rice, executive director of the Canadian Pork Council, which administers the scheme, believes the key element that has discouraged participation is the obligation to leave the barn closed for three years.

Less attractive
"As well, improved returns over the past few months through the commercial market have made the $225 payout, with its conditions, less attractive," he says. He notes that many producers are reducing their numbers without going through the programme and without emptying entire barns or obligating themselves to leave space empty.

The objective of the programme is to reduce breeding stock numbers by about 150,000 sows, or 10% of the national herd, but it seems likely that the eventual figure will be nearer to 120,000.

Human food chain
Carcasses from the culled animals have to be kept out of the human food chain, both in the domestic and export markets. However, concerned about the public reaction to destroying perfectly good pork, and in response to producer comments, provincial pork organisations persuaded the federal government to allow the meat to be donated to local food banks.

For example, in Saskatchewan, about 2,000 sows were diverted from the cull programme and processed to produce 500 thousand pounds of meat, which went to food banks across the province as well as associated agencies.

The $440,000 cost of processing was borne by the provincial government. Similar schemes have been initiated in Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Russia considers cuts on poultry, pork import quotas

By Janie Gabbett on 8/28/2008
of MeatingPlace.com

Russia is contemplating reducing its poultry and pork import quotas by hundreds of thousands of tons, the country's agriculture minister was quoted as saying Wednesday.

"It is time to change the quota regime and reduce imports, which have unfortunately built up in recent years," Alexei Gordeyev told reporters, according to the ITAR-Tass news agency.

Referring to the current quota agreements, Gordeyev said, "Agreements, signed more than three years ago as part of the negotiations on WTO accession, are unfortunately no longer in Russia's interests." Gordeyev's statement comes amid heightened tensions between Moscow and Washington over the war in ex-Soviet Georgia.

Poultry impact

While causing a lot of frantic phone calls over the past 24-hours, Gordeyev's comments so far have not been followed by any government-to-government discussions about reducing the quotas, U.S. Poultry and Egg Export Council (USAPEEC) President James Sumner told Meatingplace.com.


That said, just a month ago, USAPEEC and the Russian Poultry Meat Market Operators Association agreed in principle to reduce the 2009 U.S. tariff quota from 931,500 tons to 750,000 tons. (See Russia to cut tariff quotas on U.S. poultry imports on Meatingplace.com, July 29, 2008.)

"Our office in Moscow thinks it fortuitous we had these discussions. The (U.S. poultry) industry is already anticipating a decrease in exports to Russia," said Sumner, noting that Russia has been increasing its poultry production by 16 to 17 percent annually in recent years. Currently, Russia is the largest export market for U.S. chicken, accounting for over 25 percent of exports.

Pork impact

Russia also has been cited as an important and growing export market for U.S. pork.
The U.S. Meat Export Federation lists Russia as the fourth largest export market for U.S. pork. In the first six months of 2008, U.S. pork exports to Russia totaled 75,730 metric tons, up 143 percent in volume from the first six months of 2007.

Smithfield Foods CEO Larry Pope cited Russia Tuesday as one of the key growing markets that has helped boost the company's fresh pork sales. At a time when there is a large domestic supply of pork, strong and growing exports have been critical to keeping U.S. pork prices afloat.

China: recent pork prices drop

http://www.pigprogress.net/home/id1602-64416/china_recent_pork_prices_drop.html

Retail prices of pork in China fell 0.28% in the week ending August 22. According to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the prices dropped to an average of 14.23 yuan ($US2.08) per 500 grams.

Easing pork prices
Pork prices have been easing since reaching a peak of 14.8 yuan in the week of February 4.

Slight price increase for meat, chicken and eggs
Reports state that beef, chicken and egg prices rose slightly in the latest week, while mutton prices were down.

Food costs, which make up a third of the consumer price index and have added onto inflation, ascended 14.4% from a year earlier in July, compared with 17.3% in the year to June.

China's economic planning agency, the NDRC, surveys retail prices in 36 major cities.

Saturday, August 23, 2008

Food prices to post biggest rise since 1990: USDA

By Christopher Doering via http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/food_prices_usda_dc
Wed Aug 20, 5:43 PM ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumers should brace for the biggest increase in food prices in nearly 20 years in 2008 and even more pain next year due to surging meat and produce prices, the Agriculture Department said on Wednesday.

Food prices are forecast to rise by 5 percent to 6 percent this year, making it the largest annual increase since 1990. Just last month, USDA forecast food prices would climb between 4.5 and 5.5 percent in 2008.

"It's a little bit of a surprise how strong some of the numbers were in July," USDA economist Ephraim Leibtag, who prepared the forecast, said in an interview.

"We've been waiting for some moderation, but especially with some of the meat prices and how much has come through relatively recently (at the retail level) leads me to believe the overall number may be a little bit higher for the year," he added.

Leibtag said he expected food prices to moderate, but the timing depends on what happens to volatile energy and food ingredient costs.

Prices are expected to rise by 4 percent to 5 percent in 2009, lead by red meat and poultry. The forecast, if correct, would be the third straight year where food prices have surged at least 4 percent.

In its latest food prices report, USDA said the increase for 2008 was due partly to higher costs for meat, poultry and fish, which make up about 12 percent of total food spending. Overall, costs for these items are forecast to rise 3 percent compared to 2.5 percent estimated last month.

Prices for fruits and vegetables, which account for more than 8 percent of food spending, will also rise 5.5 percent versus 5 percent predicted in July.

USDA also forecast increases this year of 9.5 percent for cereals and bakery products, a 14 percent surge for eggs and a 13.5 percent hike for fats and oils.

A broad range of commodities posted record highs this year, including corn and soybeans. Prices have since backed off as concerns over smaller crops due to a wet spring in the U.S. Midwest have largely dissipated.

In its first estimate of the fall harvest, USDA last week forecast a corn crop of 12.29 billion bushels, the second largest on record.

Despite the near-record crops, farm-gate prices for this year's corn, wheat and soybean crops, while lower than earlier forecasts, will still set records.

Agriculture Secretary Ed Schafer said last week he did not see any relief for food prices during the remainder of the year.

The cost of energy -- used to transport, package and process foods -- is still boosting food prices, even though energy prices have dropped. Oil has slumped from a record high above $147 a barrel on July 11 to $115.

"We haven't seen those prices reflected in the finished products yet," Schafer said.

Americans spend more than $1 trillion a year on groceries, snacks, carry-out food and meals in restaurants. Farmers get 20 cents of the food dollar and the rest goes to processing, labor, transportation and distribution.

Thursday, August 21, 2008

U.S. and Canadian cattle inventory down 1 percent

By Janie Gabbett on 8/20/2008

All cattle and calves in the United States and Canada combined totaled 119.5 million head on July 1, 2008, down 1 percent from a year ago, according to Statistics Canada and USDA.

All cows and heifers that have calved totaled 48.2 million head, also down 1 percent from a year ago.

All cattle and calves in the United States as of July 1, 2008, totaled 104.3 million head, slightly below the 104.8 million on July 1, 2007, and 1 percent below the 105.2 million two years ago. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 42.4 million head, was down slightly from a year ago.

All cattle and calves in Canada as of July 1, 2008, totaled 15.2 million head, down 4 percent from the 15.9 million on July 1, 2007, and 5 percent below the 16 million two years ago. All cows and heifers in Canada that have calved, at 5.84 million, was down 4 percent from the 6.08 million on July 1, 2007, and 5 percent below the 6.17 million from two years ago.

Statistics Canada and USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service release these combined cattle numbers at the request of the U.S. cattle industry to provide additional information about potential beef supplies. U.S. inventory numbers were previously released on July 25, 2008.

Chicken feet in demand in China

Latest figures show that the customs authorities in Beijing reveal that in the first 6 months of 2008, China imported almost 420,000 tons of poultry meat.

This figure represents an increase of almost 25,000 tons on the same period of 2007 and is 133,000 tons higher than in the first two quarters of 2006.

The US was the major supplier of poultry meat to China in the first six months of 2008 shipping in 300,000 tons, which is an increase of over 50,000 tons. Argentina, which is a country renowned for its beef, saw exports soar from 18,700 t to 112,600 tons.

From January to the end of June 2008, over 50% of poultry imports were in the form of chicken feet.

Lower grain prices, higher hog prices slowing U.S. sow slaughter

By Janie Gabbett on 8/20/2008

As grain prices have continued to fall and hog prices have remained relatively firm, sow slaughter may be slowing in the United States.

"Our contacts indicated that sows are simply not available since corn and soybean prices fell dramatically during July and hog prices have rallied to annual highs in recent weeks," wrote livestock analysts Steve Meyer and Len Steiner in the CME Group's Daily Livestock Report. "The liquidation signals are not nearly as strong as they were just a few weeks ago."

The analysts noted that while U.S. sow slaughter has been 9.3 percent higher so far this year, sow prices have exploded in the past three weeks to reach their highest level of the year and surpass both last year's price and the five-year average.

Canada continues to liquidate hogs

Meanwhile, Statistics Canada reported Tuesday that farm inventories of all hogs declined 11.6 percent between July 2007 and July 2008 to 13 million hogs, which is the lowest level since 2000, as soft slaughter prices and high feed costs continued.

The Canadian breeding inventory, at 1.49 million head, was down 5 percent from last year and down 1 percent from last quarter. Sows farrowed during this period totaled 801,700 head, down 1 percent from last year.

The CME Group report noted that Canada's sow buyout program has seen roughly 120,000 head signed up to be liquidated; a number which might grow between now and the Sept. 1 close of the program that was aimed at reducing the sow herd by 150,000.

It also noted some Canadian producers have liquidated their sow herds but not signed up for the government program because they did not want to commit to staying out of the business for three years.

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

US Ag Economists Look Ahead to Pork, Corn and Soybean Meal Prices

By Pork news staff (Wednesday, August 13, 2008)

The American Agricultural Economics Association surveyed its members on various commodity prices forecasts, and specific to live-hog, corn and soybean prices, pork producers will have a tough road. The 2008 survey reveals an average live-hog price of $56.88 for 2009, and a projection that pork production will not turn a profit.

The AAEA survey cited fourth-quarter live-hog prices at $48.36 per hundredweight, then climbing to $51.61 in first quarter 2009. For the second quarter, the survey put live-hog prices at $58.46, $60.25 for the third quarter, and $57.01 for fourth quarter 2009.

To reach those prices, the economists assumed that third-quarter 2008 pork production will be 7.2 percent higher than a year ago, and up 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter. For 2009, they expect first-quarter production to be down 2 percent, second quarter down 2.8 percent, third quarter down 3.2 percent and fourth quarter down 3.6 percent from 2008 levels.

"Based on these forecasts, pork producers that cannot handle more risk should take a long, hard look at what the lean-hog futures contract is now offering for hedge opportunities," University of Missouri Economists Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain wrote in their weekly report. "If the (AAEA) forecasts turn out to be what happens -- and they look realistic with current information -- pork producers on average will lose money through much of 2009."

The AAEA survey also forecast corn prices at the Chicago Board of Trade at $6.69 per bushel by Dec. 1, 2008; $7.04 by March 1, 2009; and $7 by late June.

Looking at soybean meal, the economists predict CBT averages of $375 per ton for Dec. 1, 2008; $396 for March 1, 2009; and $402 for late June 2009.


Source: Meatingplace.com

Saturday, August 16, 2008

BSE CASE CONFIRMED IN ALBERTA, CANADA

OTTAWA, August 15, 2008 - The Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) has confirmed bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in a six-year-old beef cow from Alberta. No part of the animal’s carcass entered the human food or animal feed systems.

The animal’s birth farm has been identified, and an investigation is underway. The CFIA is tracing the animal's herdmates at the time of birth and examining possible sources of infection. The age and location of the infected animal are consistent with previous cases detected in Canada.

This case was detected through the national BSE surveillance program, which has been highly successful in demonstrating the low level of BSE in Canada. The program continues to play an important role in Canada’s strategy to manage BSE.

Canada remains a Controlled Risk country for BSE, as recognized by the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE). Accordingly, this case should not affect exports of Canadian cattle or beef.


For information:

Canadian Food Inspection Agency
Media relations: 613-228-6682

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Ground turkey distribution growing

National Turkey Federation’s 2008 Marketplace Survey shows a variety in available turkey products.

Turkey cuts and products are proving to have a year-round presence with increased visibility in the retail and foodservice categories, as shown in the National Turkey Federation’s (NTF) 2008 Marketplace Survey.

Ground turkey saw the most significant growth with more than 403 mln pounds sold in 2007, which is up from almost 365 mln pounds, resulting in a 10% increase from 2005.

“Ground turkey growth in the marketplace is a reflection of its versatility and excellent nutritional profile, which makes it easy to use in an array of dishes,” said NTF’s vice president of marketing and communications Sherrie Rosenblatt.

The survey reveals that the top three turkey products produced are whole birds (24.5%), cooked white meat, or deli meat, (13.8%) and ground turkey (10.1%).

Nearly 43% of the turkey volume sold goes to the retail sector. Whole birds make up 50% of the volume distributed to supermarkets, followed by ground turkey (15.6%) and bone-in breast (7.3%).

Friday, August 8, 2008

Brazil suspends processed beef exports to U.S.

By Tom Johnston of MeatingPlace.com

Brazil has voluntarily suspended exports of processed beef to the United States due to inadequacies in Brazil's inspection system.

Laura Reiser, a spokeswoman for USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service, told Meatingplace.com the move followed FSIS's annual audit of Brazil's inspection system.

"The FSIS auditors identified issues with record keeping in establishments, oversight of laboratories and previous corrective actions seemed to be de-emphasized," she said.

FSIS continues to analyze the audit information. Meantime, Brazil must conduct its own assessments and corrective actions.

"FSIS will review the information Brazil provides, conduct follow-up audits then determine whether these exports can resume," Reiser said.

As a safeguard to diseases such as foot-and-mouth, the United States limits imports of Brazilian beef to processed product.