Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Hog price run-up surprises analysts, may be driven by domestic demand

By Janie Gabbett on 4/30/2008 for Meatingplace.com

A nearly 20 percent run-up in live hog prices over the past two weeks has well surpassed even the normal seasonal April/May price climb, leaving analysts interviewed by Meatingplace.com to only guess that strong domestic demand is the driver.

Purdue Extension Economist Chris Hurt said Western corn belt live hog prices over the past five years have averaged $56.86 per hundredweight during the first week of April and have climbed to an average of $71.72 by the third week in May — about a $15 climb.

This year, hog prices in the third week of March dipped to $49.72, but by April 28 had already hit $73.20 — a $23.50 climb still weeks ahead of the typical mid-May price peak.

Analysts are at a loss to explain precisely what has precipitated the recent run-up.

"I'm as confused as you are by the dramatic rate of increase," said Brumm Swine Consultancy founder Michael Brumm, noting that even strong exports and strong domestic demand don't fully explain how suddenly prices rose.

Supply/demand

"It's sure not because of smaller supplies," said Hurt, noting that although supplies typically decline at this time of year as smaller pig crops from cold weather farrowings hit the market, slaughter rates for the past four weeks have remained as much as 14 percent higher than a year ago. "There are a phenomenal amount of hogs in the marketplace."

While pork exports have been a big story this year, a current container shortage has tempered them of late.

"It's got to be domestic demand," said Paragon Economics President Steve Meyer, pointing to a price point advantage against beef and the fact that chicken prices have remained steady.

"April is a mixed bag in that summer price trends may start in April or they may not," said Iowa State University Extension Economics Shane Ellis. "Retail prices of pork remained above year-previous prices, even during the time when hog prices were at their lowest, so demand was strong enough to absorb some of the added supply."

Worst fears

The analysts expressed concern that the recent price run-up could derail much-needed sow herd reductions.

"It's a little dangerous to be telling the pork industry to just keep going; it looks like everything is going to be fine. I don't think that's the case at all," said Hurt. He said a 6 percent to 8 percent sow herd reduction is needed at current feed prices, and if corn were to reach, say, $7 a bushel, producers would need to cut sow herds by 16 percent to 18 percent to keep prices ahead of costs.

But everything that goes up must come down, and Meyer said that could happen to hog prices soon. "I think there will be a slam on the brakes this week as packer margins fall out of bed," he predicted.

Russia suspends pork imports from four U.S. plants

By Tom Johnston on 4/30/2008 for Meatingplace.com

USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service said Russia has banned imports of pork from four U.S. processing plants, claiming to have detected an antibiotic in the meat.

Russia suspended imports of pork from Tyson Foods Inc.'s Storm Lake, Iowa, and Logansport, Ind., plants and Farmland Foods' Crete, Neb., and Monmouth, Ill., plants. Farmland Foods is owned by Smithfield Foods.

"They had a question about tetracycline," USDA Press Secretary Keith Williams told Meatingplace.com. "We will work it out with them. As usual, in these business arrangements, they ask about shipments; we make inquiries and resolve the issue."

Tetracycline is used to fight bacterial infections by way of injection. The antibiotic also is used as an additive in hog feed to boost growth. Whether the drug is prohibited by Russia as it relates to pork imports is "part of what we're checking — seeing what their question is and the basis of what they're asking," Williams said.

Tyson spokesman Gary Mickelson told Meatingplace.com, "We're still trying to learn more about the reason for the suspension." He noted the company will continue to serve its Russian customers through its four other U.S. pork plants, which remain eligible to export to Russia.

Smithfield could not be reached for comment.

The ban is effective May 5. "Certificates can be signed for pork originating from this establishment through May 4, 2008. Product must be loaded on ship by May 4, 2008," FSIS said on its Web site.

Avian Influenza Alert - Japan

Information received on 29/04/2008 from Dr Toshiro Kawashima, Director, International Animal Health Affairs Office, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Tokyo , Japan. For full report please see attached file.......

Avian Influenza Alert - Denmark

Information received on 29/04/2008 from Mr Torben Grubbe, M. Sc., Animal Health Division, Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Danish Veterinary and Food Administration, Søborg, Denmark. Please see attached file for full report..........


Sunday, April 27, 2008

Canadian hog inventories fall, could mean fewer exports to U.S.

By Janie Gabbett on 4/25/2008 for Meatingplace.com

Canadian inventory of all hogs and pigs on April 1 was down 12 percent from a year ago, according to a joint USDA/Statistics Canada report, further evidence the industry across the border is rapidly downsizing.

April 1 total Canadian inventory stood at 13.0 million head, down 12 percent from April 1, 2007 and down 14 percent from April 1, 2006. The breeding inventory, at 1.50 million head, was down 5 percent from last year and down 2 percent from last quarter. Market hog inventory, at 11.5 million head, was down 13 percent from last year and down 6 percent from last quarter. The pig crop, at 7.95 million head, was down 1 percent from 2007 and down 4 percent from 2006. Sows farrowed during this period totaled 809,000 head, down 2 percent from last year.

In February the Canadian government announced a cull program designed to reduce the hog breeding herd by 10 percent and reduce annual production by about 3 million pigs.

The new Canadian data indicates the pace of hog exports from Canada to the United States should slow down going forward, according to analysts Steve Meyer and Len Steiner in their Daily Livestock Report. Canada has increased its live hog exports to the United States by nearly 30 percent over the past year as a strong Canadian dollar and other factors have made it more expensive to feed them to slaughter in Canada.

The new data put combined U.S. and Canadian inventory during March 2008 at 78.9 million head, up 3 percent from a year ago and up 5 percent from March, 2006. The breeding inventory, at 7.64 million head, was down less than 1 percent from a year ago and from last quarter. Market hog inventory, at 71.3 million head, was up 3 percent from last year but down 2 percent from last quarter. The pig crop, at 36.0 million head, was up 5 percent from 2007 and up 6 percent from 2006. Sows farrowed during this period totaled 3.86 million head, up 4 percent from last year.

AI in Saskatchewan, Canada - controlled

CFIA News

April 25, 2008

Update on Saskatchewan Avian Influenza

Ninety days have passed since cleaning and disinfection activities on the affected Saskatchewan farm were completed. No further cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza have been detected through surveillance during this period.
The World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) has been notified that Canada is now considered to be free of highly pathogenic avian influenza in accordance with the science-based standards adopted by the international animal health body.

Canada wants full access to S. Korea's beef market, too

By Tom Johnston on 4/25/2008 for Meatingplace.com

Shortly after South Korea agreed to re-open its market fully to U.S. beef, Canada also is asking for unfettered access to Seoul's beef market.

Korea's Ministry for Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said the respective governments are in the midst of setting a time and place for negotiations, according to Yonhap.

The World Organization for Animal Health has deemed Canada a controlled- risk country for bovine spongiform encephalopathy, the same classification the organization gave to the United States.

Before Seoul banned imports of Canadian beef on May 21, 2003, following the discovery of a case of BSE in the country, Canada was its fourth-largest source of imported beef behind the United States, Australia and New Zealand.


- - - - -
If this happened, definitely price of Canadian beef will have a high increase.

Thursday, April 24, 2008

Japan suspends imports from National Beef plant

By Tom Johnston on 4/23/2008 for Meatingplace.com

Japan said Wednesday it has suspended beef imports from a National Beef Packing Co. plant following an apparent shipping snafu.

USDA Press Secretary Keith Williams confirmed that one of 700 cartons shipped by the Brawley, Calif., plant contained short loin that included a portion of the vertebral column, a specified risk material prohibited by Japanese protocols.

"One carton out of 700 cartons was not intended to be shipped to Japan," Williams told Meatingplace.com.

Williams added, "The United States and the Government of Japan have notified the California company that it will not be allowed to ship again to Japan until we have determined how the single carton was included in this larger shipment."

A Japanese official was quoted in media reports as saying, "It is the first SRM case since the resumption of U.S. beef imports in July, 2006."

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Davao hog raisers face crises

JOEL B. ESCOVILLA, Correspondent, BusinessWorld
04/22/2008 | 04:51 AM

DAVAO CITY, Philippines - About 30% of backyard hog raisers in this city have folded up and a lot more are expected to follow due to rising cost of operation.

Davao Hog Raisers Association chairman, Teresita Pascual, said that losing more backyard hog raisers is alarming because they constitute 70% of the whole industry in the city.

She said other backyard raisers are holding on to their last stock, while some of them have sold off their remaining sows to send their children to nursing school. "They told us that it’s a better investment because their children will also earn P100,000 each month when they go abroad," she said.

Ms. Pascual said the backyard raisers could not cope with the expenses of renovating the pens, building sprinkling systems, and improving the ventilation to prevent heat stroke and diseases among the hogs caused by the intense heat. "It used to be that hog raisers allot one square meter per head; now, we have to double that," she said.

For those who plan to invest in commercial-scale hog farming, she said, P50 million would be an ideal investment for 500 sows at P100,000 per head, which could yield 80% return in three years time.

The situation has caused the farm-gate price of hogs to jump from P78 per kilogram last December to the present average of P90/kg.

Hog raisers, Ms. Pascual added, used to produce 10 piglets for each sow; but productivity dropped to six or seven piglets while the rearing period lengthened for each piglet. "Now traders don’t ask how much, they ask if there’s still stock left," she said.

Ms. Pascual also cited the price of feeds which tripled from five years ago, which she partly blamed on the government’s strategy to promote biofuel stock that, she argued, competed with the needs of her industry.

But William C. Barangan, provincial director of the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics-XI, said the first quarter of the year is considered as seasonally lean months for corn in the country, adding the situation is expected to ease up by the end of the month.

He said the provinces of Bukidnon and Cotabato, the primary corn-producing areas in Mindanao, were also affected by incessant rains which pushed farm-gate prices up to over P13 from P10 last December.

Rising farm-gate prices of hogs provoked meat vendors in Bankerohan, the biggest public market here, to ask the city council to investigate the possibility of price manipulation. In a resolution submitted to the council last month, the Bankerohan Meat Vendors Association asked Councilor Edgar R. Ibuyan to look "into the drastic and continuing increase" of farm-gate price of hogs.

"The hog raisers may have a valid reason to raise farm-gate prices probably due to higher production cost," Mr. Ibuyan said. "But we want to ascertain that these farm-gate prices are reasonable and fair."

Current market stall price of pork in Bankerohan is now P145/kg, up from P120/kg in February.

South Korea to cull millions of chickens

(MEATPOULTRY.com, April 22, 2008)
by Bryan Salvage

SEOUL ― South Korea plans to slaughter at least 5.32 million birds to contain its latest outbreak of avian influenza. This is the greatest number of poultry ever killed in the country in an attempt to quell the disease's spread, according to The Associated Press.

Since the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu broke out earlier this month for the first time in more than a year, South Korea has killed 4.85 million birds, Agriculture Ministry official Jin Pil-sik said on Monday. By today, another 477,000 chickens were to be slaughtered near the latest outbreak site.

Serious food-safety offenders in China face life in prison

(MEATPOULTRY.com, April 22, 2008)
by Bryan Salvage

BEIJING ― China posted its new draft food safety law, which includes penalties ranging from fines to life in prison for manufacturers of substandard food, according to Xinhua reports. Covering food safety evaluation, monitoring, recall and information release, the draft law was submitted to the N.P.C. Standing Committee in December for the first hearing.

Under the draft law, manufacturers of substandard food products face fines, loss of their incomes and revocation of production certificates. In serious cases, offenders could receive prison terms ranging from three years to life.

Poland’s meat crisis

Polish meat has already become more expensive compared to Western Europe.

However, the situation may be reversed if the Polish parliament agrees to GMO feed and if Poland follows the same path as Denmark.

During 2007, the amount of imports exceeded exports. This was mainly due to high pork prices in Poland. According to Dariusz Nowakowski, CEO of Grupa Animex, Poland’s biggest meat processor, the situation may get even worse this year.

Much higher prices compared to EU
Nowakowski says, “85% of production costs are generated by meat prices. In Poland, the price of pork has for a long time already been higher than the EU average and much higher than in Denmark, the USA or Brazil.”

Most likely, higher production costs will have to be dealt with as well, when a ban of GMO elements in feed is implemented in August this year.

“This is a big threat to our company and to the whole sector in Poland. If this provision comes into force, meat prices will soon jump and imports will further grow,” said Nowakowski.

The Minister of Agriculture, Marek Sawicki, has promised to levy this ban.

Denmark a good example
Nowakowski added that, “Polish meat would become more competitive and that prices would fall substantially if the sector followed the suit of Denmark, which has become a giant in pork production and exports in the last thirty years.”

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Phil DA lifts ban on poultry imports from Italy

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/storyPage.aspx?storyId=115314

The Department of Agriculture lifted Thursday a temporary ban on all imports of domestic and wild birds along with poultry and its products from Italy following reports that the European country tested free of avian influenza in the past 18 months.

Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap ordered the lifting of the ban after an evaluation done by the Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI) showed that "the risk of contamination from importing poultry and poultry products from Italy is negligible."

Based on the final report submitted by Italy's Direzione Generale Sanita Veterinaria e Alimenti to the Office International des Epizooties (OIE), or World Organization for Animal Health last Sept. 21, 2006, Yap said there was no longer any evidence showing the presence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in that country.

The Terrestrial Animal Health Code of the OIE sets a three-month period before a country can regain its bird flu-free status after it has conducted a stamping-out campaign to eradicate birds infected with the AI virus.

Earlier, the DA also banned the entry of birds, poultry and its products from Korea, Saudi Arabia, Poland and the western African country of Benin to protect human health and the poultry industry in the Philippines , which has remained free of bird flu ever since the H5N1 strain of this virus resurfaced in Asia in 2003.

The Philippines is one of only three AI-free countries in Southeast Asia. The two others are Brunei and Singapore.

Earlier, Yap had ordered the BAI to step up its implementation of border patrols, quarantine measures and other preventive steps to keep the Philippines AI-free amid the resurgence of the bird flu virus in Asia, particularly Indonesia, Myanmar and Pakistan.

Yap had directed BAI Director Davinio Catbagan to intensify the implementation of these preventive measures in airports and seaports in the cities of Davao and General Santos owing to their proximity to Indonesia , one of Asia 's bird-flu infected countries.

S.Korea culls 3 million birds as bird flu spreads fast

from rueter
http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/storyPage.aspx?storyId=115312

SEOUL - South Korea said on Thursday it had culled three million farmed birds and was probing seven fresh cases of suspected bird flu, as the country grapples with its worst avian influenza outbreak in four years.

In just two weeks South Korea has confirmed 12 cases of the deadly H5N1 strain, raising alarm as the highly virulent virus is spreading at its fastest rate since the country reported its first case in 2003.

The farm ministry said on Thursday it had seven new reports of suspected bird flu outbreaks at poultry farms in North and South Jeolla provinces, some 320 km (200 miles) south of Seoul, where the first bird flu recurrence for a year was reported earlier this month.

The country raised the risk level for bird flu to the second highest on Wednesday and sent 200 soldiers to kill and bury birds, as an outbreak was confirmed at a farm in Pyeongtaek, just 60 km south of Seoul, bringing the disease closer to the capital.

Under criticism

South Korean authorities have come under heavy criticism as the highly pathogenic virus continues to spread, despite their rigorous efforts, and as they have failed to provide clear explanations for the cause of the fast spread.

The farm ministry said its quarantine work would focus on speeding up slaughtering and investigating possible causes of the spread such as migrating birds and transport workers who have been moving around affected sites and other parts of the country.

Prime Minister Han Seung-soo ordered at a ministerial meeting on Thursday a step-up of quarantine work and consideration of all options to help affected farmers.

The fast-spreading outbreak has hit poultry consumption, posing a big threat to farmers already struggling with high animal feed prices.

Han told related ministers to consider helping farmers with tax benefits, financial assistance and budget spending.

South Korea, which estimates it will spend 32 billion won ($32.4 million) on quarantine work in the current outbreak, also plans to introduce insurance products that offer up to 2 billion won compensation if a human infection is reported following poultry consumption.

Chicken sales in the past 15 days have dropped 60 percent at four major retailers surveyed by the farm ministry, while prices of chicken and duck dropped up to 10 percent.

The country had seven bird flu outbreaks between November 2006 and March last year and 19 cases between December 2003 and March 2004, when it had to kill 5.3 million birds. No human deaths have been reported.

Some 240 human deaths have been reported globally from the H5N1 strain and 380 confirmed cases of infection since 2003, according to World Health Organization data.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Hog raisers in WV join ‘Pork-in-a-Box’ project

PHILIPPINES - A Pork-in-Box scheme is helping pig farmers in Western Visayas boost returns from markets in Metro Manila. They can now ship carcases from the Passi City abattoir safely to Pontevedra Meat Cutting Facility in Capiz for processing. .

The Department of Agriculture scheme enables the meant to be cut and then stored and chilled in a modern blast freezing and packing equipment. It is then transported by vans via roll on-roll off or nautical highway to selling points across Metro Manila.

The scheme is aimed at reducing the risk and incidence of animal diseases because it minimises the transport and shipment of live animals.

The "Pork-in-a-Box" program was relaunched by the DA last year to improve accessibility of safe and hygienic pork products. The scheme is new to Panay and is already proving a success.

OIC-Regional Executive Director Larry Nacionales said meat products sold under the Pork-in-a-box project are cheaper by P5 to P10 per kilo than the prevailing prices in regular retail outlets.

Hog growers in Panay have committed to deliver 15 tons of pork per week under the project, he said.

National Federation of Hog Farmers President, Albert Lim says that hog farmers support the program. It allows them to take part in the supply chain and provide the consumers easy access to quality pork cuts at a lower price.

Monday, April 14, 2008

Cagle's latest poultry processor to cut production

By Alicia Karapetian on 4/11/2008 for Meatingplace.com

Cagle's Inc. late Thursday announced that it will immediately cut chicken production by 4 percent, making the Atlanta-based processor the third company to cut production in one week.

Cagle's joins Siloam Springs, Ark.-based Simmons Foods, which this week cut chicken production by 6 percent, and Baldwin, Ga.-based Fieldale Farms, which last week cut production by 5 percent.

All of the companies cited mounting feed costs as the impetus for the cuts.

"Current chicken prices have failed to reflect the tremendous increase in the cost of feed," Doug Cagle, president and CEO, said in a statement. "The cutback in production will not affect our customers with existing commitments but will reduce product being sold through less profitable commodity outlets."

Cagle's said its reduction will affect the number of birds processed at the company's Pine Mountain Valley, Ga., plant — one of two plants the company operates in the Southeast. No layoffs are planned as a result of the production decrease, the company said.

Pilgrim's Pride may close El Dorado facility

By Alicia Karapetian on 4/11/2008 for Meatingplace.com

High costs for grains continue to squeeze the nation's largest chicken processor, Pilgrim's Pride Corp., which may close its processing complex in El Dorado, Ark., company spokesman Ray Atkinson told Meatingplace.com.

"We have invested millions of dollars in that facility after purchasing it from ConAgra [in 2002] and have not seen a return on our investment," Atkinson said. "The plant's costs are not competitive, and productivity is well below similar facilities."

Atkinson added that efficiency issues have led the complex — which employs 1,620 workers — to have difficulty filling orders on time, but declined to divulge the facility's capacity.

The El Dorado plant processes fresh case ready tray pack products, but, according to Atkinson, has not been able to attract new customers.

Pilgrim's Pride in March announced the closure of its Siler City, N.C., processing complex and six distribution centers, which resulted in some 1,100 layoffs. (See Pilgrim's Pride cuts 1100 jobs, shutters 7 facilities on Meatingplace.com, March 12, 2008.)

The company at that time said it was continually reviewing other facilities for possible product mix changes and/or plant closures. "It's all about ethanol and grain prices," Atkinson said. "It's putting us in this spot."

Atkinson did emphasize, however, that the company has not made an official decision about El Dorado, and closure could be avoided if the facility's financial situation turns around in short order. "We don't want to have to close down the complex," he said. "But we need to see significant and immediate changes in operating efficiency or that will be our only choice."

Pilgrim's Pride also is engaging in discussions with the United Food and Commercial Workers Union to explore possible changes that could help improve the financial situation at the El Dorado complex.

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Minnesota's bovine TB status downgraded by APHIS

By Ann Bagel Storck on 4/9/2008 for Meatingplace.com

USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service has downgraded Minnesota's status for bovine tuberculosis, moving it from the list of Modified Accredited Advanced states to the Modified Accredited list.

The state began preparing for the downgrade after the fourth herd since October 2007 tested positive for bovine TB. (See Minnesota prepares for status downgrade after more bovine TB found on Meatingplace.com, Feb. 21, 2008.)

The change in classification means the interstate movement of cattle and bison from Minnesota will be restricted.

Last week, Gov. Tim Pawlenty named Minnesota Department of Agriculture Assistant Commissioner Joe Martin state bovine TB coordinator. He will oversee statewide efforts to eradicate the disease.

China reports fifth case of A.I.

(MEATPOULTRY.com, April 08, 2008)
by MEAT&POULTRY Staff

HONG KONG ― Avian influenza is being blamed for killing chickens in poultry markets in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou, Chinese officials have confirmed. China's Ministry of Agriculture notified the administration that the birds tested positive for the H5N1 bird flu virus, marking the country's fifth outbreak among poultry this year, according to The Associated Press.

China’s Ministry of Agriculture also said that last week's outbreak in Guangzhou killed 114 birds and resulted in the slaughter of 518 others. But it has been contained, the ministry said.

China raises more poultry than any other country and health officials there have vowed to aggressively fight the virus. H5N1 has killed at least 235 people worldwide, according to the World Health Organization. Most human cases have been linked to contact with infected birds, AP said.

China has reported three human bird flu deaths this year, including a 44-year-old migrant worker last month in southern Guangdong province. China has recorded 20 human deaths since the virus began ravaging Asian poultry stocks in late 2003.

Tuesday, April 8, 2008

Government 'Neglect' is Crippling Business, say Producers

From: PigSite.com

CEBU CITY – Pig producers in Central Visayas says that the lack of government support for the local livestock industry is helping to fuel increases to meat prices.

According to GMA News, pig farmers have been asking for assistance amid rising feed prices and escalating inputs costs. Meat vendors in major markets in Cebu City claim that they are losing out as fewer people are buying meat due to the high prices.

The National Federation of hog farmers blamed increasing costs of feeds and other livestock inputs why they could not sell their products at low prices. Amid calls for support, the Department of Agriculture Central Visayas admitted it could only give technical support to hog raisers

Bulacan execs monitor pig diarrhea 'outbreak'

From: GMANews.TV
04/08/2008 | 07:54 AM


BULACAN, Philippines - Health authorities in Bulacan province have started monitoring hog farms amid reports of an outbreak of porcine diarrhea in the area.

Radio dzBB's Bernie Morales reported that the provincial veterinary office in Bulacan coordinated with hog dealers to keep an eye on the health of pigs they sell.

But provincial veterinary office head Dr. Felipe Bartolome said hog dealers should not use the potential hog supply shortage as an excuse to raise prices of pigs.

He said, however, that his office is mapping out plans to prevent the spread of the disease among swine.

In 2007, an outbreak of hog cholera prompted health officials to declare a “red alert" in Bulacan and nearby provinces.

An article on porcine epidemic diarrhea at The Pig Site said the virus that causes the disease damages the villi in the gut, reducing the absorptive surface, which could cause dehydration.

But after introduction of the virus into a susceptible breeding herd, a strong immunity develops over two to three weeks. The colostral immunity then protects the piglets.

Symptoms in sows include mild "cow pat" feces and loose feces to a watery diarrhea.

Diarrhea, dehydration, and a possibly high mortality are among the symptom in piglets.

Signs of the disease in weaners and growers include acute watery diarrhea with no blood or mucus, low mortality but high morbidity, rapid spread of diarrhea across all breeding and growing pigs with almost 100% morbidity (pigs affected) within five to 10 days and vomiting. - GMANews.TV

Thursday, April 3, 2008

Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza - Korea

Information received on 02/04/2008 from Dr Chang-Seob Kim, Director, Animal Health Division, Livestock Bureau , Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF), Gwacheon-city, Korea (Rep. of)

Please see attached photos of the report........







Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Too many pigs push hog futures markets down

By Janie Gabbett on 4/1/2008 for Meatingplace.com

USDA's quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Friday revealed more U.S. hogs than expected, driving hog futures markets down on Monday and not boding well for live hog prices for the rest of 2008.

USDA reported the inventory of all hogs and pigs on March 1, 2008 was 65.9 million head, up 7 percent from a year ago, and well above analysts' expectation of a roughly 4.5 percent rise from last year. The December 2007-February 2008 pig crop, at 28.1 million head, was up 6 percent from a year ago.

Hog futures markets fell by the daily limit in early trading Monday and closed just above the daily limit declines, but still sharply lower.

The report also showed 5 percent more sow farrowings in the December-February period as well as larger average pig litters, due in part to the success of the circovirus vaccine.

Paragon Economics President Steve Meyer told Meatingplace.com the report indicates hog supplies will remain large through September, pressuring live hog prices at the same time prospects of fewer corn acres being planted will boost feeding costs. He predicted live hog prices averaging as much as $10-$15 per hundredweight below the cost of production this year.

The only good news in Friday's report, Meyer said, was evidence the sow herd is at least starting to slow. March-May farrowing intentions were up only slightly from a year ago and June-August farrowing intentions were down 2 percent compared with a year ago.

France raises bird flu risk level on Swiss case

Fri Mar 28, 2008 12:48pm EDT
From: Reuters.com

PARIS, March 28 (Reuters) - France's agriculture ministry raised the level of risk for bird flu to moderate from low on Friday, a day after Switzerland reported its first case for two years of the deadly H5N1 strain.

With effect from Sunday, birds in France cannot be assembled in high priority zones, and birds and poultry will have to be locked up to avoid contact with wild birds, the ministry said in a statement.

It will also be prohibited to transport birds used for hunting purposes in France, it said.

Veterinary authorities in Switzerland said on Thursday a duck from Sempachersee lake had been infected with H5N1. It was Switzerland's 33rd case of bird flu.

The other 32 discovered cases of bird flu were all reported in early 2006, on Lake Geneva and Lake Constance.

France, which raised its risk alert to "high" after some wild swans infected with the highly pathogenic virus were found dead in northeast France in July 2007, regularly adjusts its alert levels.

Experts fear the H5N1 strain could mutate into a form easily transmitted from person to person, leading to a pandemic that could kill millions worldwide.